Global+Warming+and+Hurricanes

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; August 30, 2017 []
 * Global Warming and Hurricanes: An Overview of Current Research Results **


 * Summary: ** In this article, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory predicts that global warming will cause an increase in hurricane intensity and annual rainfall over the next 100 years. They examine the validity of two different conclusions previously made by climate change analysts. The first is that the link between Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) is also linked to hurricane frequency and intensity. The second finds that while Atlantic SST have increased, SST have not increased globally, indicating a much less significant increase in hurricane frequency and intensity. To test these conclusions, the GFDL analyzed recorded hurricane frequency data from 1851-2006, and found that the increase in hurricane frequency is so small that it does not suggest a correlation between global warming and hurricane frequency. The GDFL also used a model simulation of hurricanes under climate change conditions. The model predicted that while hurricanes will be less frequent over the next 100 years, the hurricanes will have higher rainfall rates and a 5% increase in hurricane intensity. Overall, the GDFL concludes that while tropical storms and hurricanes will not increase in frequency over the next century, they will increase in intensity and rainfall rates.

**Relation to Course:** The recent increase in hurricane frequency and intensity around the U.S. has led many people to wonder if this is a result of the changing climate that is impacted by human activity. Because environmental science focuses on how humans impact the earth (Miller 3), this article is relevant to the course because it examines the effect that human activity has had on hurricane patterns. Sustainable development, or meeting current needs without preventing future generations from doing so (Miller 10), requires an understanding of how/if humans affect natural disasters (such as hurricanes) so that we can reduce or eliminate those factors in order to protect future generations. If hurricane intensity has increased since the Industrial Revolution and will continue to increase, and these are correlated, we must take preventative action so that these hurricanes do not kill more people or other organisms, or cause excessive damage to property/resources. We must adopt an earth-wisdom environmental worldview and cooperate with the rest of nature so that we can minimize our impact on hurricane patterns and their consequential damage.

**Opinion:** This article, though published before hurricanes Harvey and Irma, addresses the concerns that these recent hurricanes have brought about. I would be interested to see additional research on how/if humans have impacted hurricane frequency in addition to hurricane intensity because it seems as though the U.S. has faced more hurricanes recently than usual. I am also curious as to what specific human activities, if any, are affecting hurricane intensity and rainfall rates. I feel that the research presented in this article serves as a starting point for further research on this topic. While it did support the idea that hurricane intensity has increased and continues to increase since the Industrial Revolution, I do not feel like that gives enough support to suggest that this was directly caused by human activity. It does make sense to me that these phenomena are influenced by human activity, so I would be interested in reading or doing more research on this topic.


 * Law: ** This article relates to the Water Resources Development Act of 1986, which authorizes projects such as shore protection, flood control, and hurricane and storm damage reduction. This law would authorize a project such as the research presented in this article, which deals with hurricane and storm damage reduction.

(diagram also comes from original article, not additional source)

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. “Global Warming and Hurricanes:An Overview of Current Research Results.” Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 30 Aug. 2017, https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/.
 * Bibliography: **

Miller Jr., G. Tyler. Living in the Environment. Brooks/Cole Publishing Company, 2000.